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Holy friggin cripe! 538: Biden gets negative bump after SOTU. Now -19.2 approval
By HatetheSwamp
March 12, 2024 6:01 pm
Category: Politics

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I predicted a very slight positive bump from the SOTU, because that always happens, at least.

Apparently voters saw Joe's speech in the way pb did. A juiced up, roid rage rant!

It's possible, even likely that Joe's numbers will come back slightly. But, gang, this looks really bad for the "dithering and diminished" Doddering Old Fool.


Cited and related links:

  1. projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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Comments on "Holy friggin cripe! 538: Biden gets negative bump after SOTU. Now -19.2 approval":

  1. by oldedude on March 12, 2024 6:25 pm
    Again. Out of touch. Except to the limousine liberals. This has been building for three years.

    After watching "some" of the Hur testimony today. I'm still thinking Hur didn't like or appreciate the position he was put in. And politics is a contact sport and the only thing that matters is your party in control of everything.

    DISCLAIMER: We still have a long way to go. The more negative the dims percentages are, the worse the sht slinging will get. And of course, trumpster won't help that situation. At. all.


  2. by Curt_Anderson on March 12, 2024 6:26 pm
    Um, HtS, that polling aggregate only includes polls that were partially or completely taken BEFORE the state of the union speech. Not to mention before clips and reports of the SOTU and the GOP rebuttal appeared in news reports (or in parodies).

    Btw, it was reported at the Biden campaign pulled in $10 million the 24 hours after his speech. At about the same time, Donald Trump had to pay the court in Manhattan $92 million.


  3. by Curt_Anderson on March 12, 2024 7:51 pm
    Btw, compare the favorable/unfavorable polls of Donald Trump taken at about the same time.

    Donald Trump Stung as New Poll Shows How Unpopular He Is
    Donald Trump continues to have a low favorability score among Americans, new polling shows, despite being the likely Republican nominee after winning the lion's share of primaries and seeing off his only remaining rival.

    An ABC News/Ipsos survey of 536 U.S. adults, conducted between March 8-9, found that 29 percent have a favorable view of the former president compared to 59 percent who view him unfavorably.

    More at link.
    newsweek.com


  4. by Ponderer on March 12, 2024 9:35 pm

    A landslide I'm tellin' ya.


  5. by oldedude on March 13, 2024 2:18 am
    Again. Out of touch. Except to the limousine liberals. This has been building for three years.

    Curt- The comparison to trumpster. point taken. FYSA, trumpster lost the election. jussayin...

    Americans are paying more for gas and groceries. Many are working at lower paying jobs....


  6. by HatetheSwamp on March 13, 2024 3:17 am

    Lots o things surprised me about Joe's speech.

    Nikki Haley had just told Trump and Biden that she was leaving it up to her supporters whom they'd vote for... and Joe chose to throw raw meat to radical socialists and wokesters like po and isle, for whom the speech was political porn.

    Things being usual, by now, Joe's approval normally would have bumped up by a point or two... AT LEAST.

    This is truly bad news. Joe pushed moderate and independent voters away. He didn't invite them to join his cause.

    Thanks, Joe... well, the string-pullers.


  7. by HatetheSwamp on March 13, 2024 12:13 pm

    Quick update: Joe jumped up to -17.6 approval which is +.6 since the SOTU.

    Maybe po's right. He'll win in a, well since it's po, EFFINlandslide.


  8. by Curt_Anderson on March 13, 2024 12:35 pm
    HtS,
    It will take a while before the polls show any movement as a result of the SOTU (or any single event). Obviously the polls need be taken after the SOTU. And really after the public has a chance to see and hear reports and pundits talk about the SOTU. Then there is the $10 million raised the day after the SOTU, and more fundraising money after that. That turns into ads and other campaign spending which will move the polling needle.

    As for the polls, I expect the first thing to happen is that more Biden voters will move from "somewhat support" to "strongly support".

    You mentioned Easter, I don't know when that is, but a month after the SOTU the polls should tell us something.


  9. by HatetheSwamp on March 13, 2024 12:55 pm


    Easter is three plus weeks after the speech.


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